Tuesday, July 26, 2011

TWS 对抗通货膨胀的股票 @ 26 July 2011



















现在的局势 大家应该很警惕 美国宽限债务的日子逼近 很多人都在等待最后的决定
对我来说 , 其实结局早已经出来了 也就是美金一定跌 黄金一定上 资源类股票基金指数大涨
无论通过与否 结果不会改变 赞同吗? 为了政权 为了美国人 美国不回现在倒台 死也是你们死光 它才死 last man standing

好了,如果美金一支跌, QE3 QE4 一直来, 通货膨胀一直起 买设么好? 黄金是一个好主意
但是$1600 的境界不是人人受得了 那我们就来看看 通货膨胀升高 资源基础类股应该不错  - 油棕  金属 木材 柴米油盐 石油 都是收益者

TWS近来技术面 出现三角底部讯号 可能出现技术反弹 以长期基本面来看都是不错的股. 股息高 前景好 米价糖价有上没跌 PE中等 盈利强稳 适合目前长期防守成长需求.

MACD 低与0 还没黄金交叉 - 等待
STOCHASTIC 显示超卖格局
RSI 低与30 - 还没准备好回升
20 天均线差不多要触动50天均线 - 危险讯号 ,如果能够承接的住然就会反弹

Monday, July 25, 2011

回来咯~ 休假一个月 fully charged !

wow 我离开的这段期间很精彩阿
股市好多的的动作呢 BUMI ARMADA 错过很可惜

去了漓江 一个月 没有电话 没有网络的日子 很愉快 逍遥阿 呜呜 我想不要回来 :<

目前的 portfolio
Coastal 10000
Kencana 10000
Suncity Wa 10000
Suncity 3000

关注 :
E&O
TWS
TSH
GENTING

大选的消息上报了 应该不会很遥远 我的策略 - 卖掉高风险 持有现金 等待回调 大选前清袋

Wednesday, July 6, 2011

IJM 消息的激励 @ 6th July 2011

IJM 消息的激励 @ 6th July 2011


























技术分析 :
价格上扬 成交量维持在均线 最后三天连续增加 - 好迹象
MACD 突破0区域后继续上扬 - positive
RSI 超过70 - 强势状态
Stochastic > 80 - 短期超买

10D 20D 30D 50D均线 都向上扬拓展 显示上升通道
技术指标显示准备突破状态 , 价格将尝试RM6.60 阻力点 强力支持点于 RM6.20
搭配政府近来的建筑业利好消息 MRT LRT 将带动行业股价 潜在因素有

 West Coast Expressway and the New Pantai Expressway extension
 Klang Valley LRT/MRT works and the Seremban-Johore Baharu Double Tracking project.(RM2 billion)
 Chilkaluripet – Vijayawada highway in Andhra Pradesh, India (82.5km)

4Q11 将会拨备RM1亿左右来cover 印度的 cost overrun & delay. 目前积极在国内发展业务以本地为主.

PE = 18x
ROE = 6.91%
Divident = 2.42%
NAV = RM3.75



IJM-WCinstrument Type : Warrants
Description : IJM-WC
Listing Date : 28/10/2009
Issue Date : 26/10/2009
Issue/ Ask Price : MYR 0.2500
Issue Size in Unit : 132,097,381
Maturity Date : 24/10/2014
Revised Maturity Date :
Exercise/Conversion Period Type : 5 Year(s)
Revised Exercise/Conversion Period Type : 0 Year(s)
Exercise/ Strike/ Conversion Price : MYR 4.0000  
Exercise/ Conversion Ratio : 1:1
RM6.5 - RM4 = 2.5 /1 = 2.5(也就是WC现在的价钱)maturity = 2014 如果看好IJM接下来的走势, WC是一个很好的杠杆 , 6/7/11  4.30pm RM2.45


Monday, July 4, 2011

BUMI ARMADA - 海上霸王 重新上市的机遇 @ 4 July 2011

BUMI ARMADA IPO




Of the public issue, 564.4 million shares are for institutional investors while 79.8 million are for the public, Bumi Armada directors and employees at a retail price of RM3.15. (12.5% 给公众认购 = = 憎多粥少阿 不够分得)

Post-listing, Hassan said Ananda’s vehicle Usaha Tegas Sdn Bhd via Objektif Bersatu Sdn Bhd will own some 43% equity interest in the company from 54%.

About 10.24% of the enlarged paid-up capital of Bumi Armada will be held by cornerstone investors, which include Permodalan Nasional Bhd, Great Eastern Life Assurance Bhd, Hwang DBS Investment Management Bhd, Guoline Capital Ltd and Asia Fountain Investment Co Ltd.

At RM3.15, Bumi Armada is valued at a historical (FY10) price earnings ratio of about 18 times
, which is in line with the industry average according to experts. (好货不便宜)

Hassan said with its large and modern OSV fleet, strong team and a business model that does not require the company to “dump prices” Bumi Armada has a strong competitive edge over its peers. (竞争优势)

Bumi Armada has a presence in Asia, Africa and Latin America. From 2008 to 2010, the company has seen an earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (Ebitda) compound annual growth rate of over 53%. (高增长)

In FY10 ended December, it posted net profit of RM350.8 million on the back of RM1.24 billion revenue. About 84% of its revenue came from abroad. (不受国内因素影响 全球经营 缺点:美金相连)



KUALA LUMPUR: Main Market-bound Bumi Armada Bhd is tendering for six floating, production, storage and offloading (FSPO) jobs worth US$300 million (RM906 million) to US$500 million each, including one from Petroliam Nasional Bhd for its Vietnam venture.

CEO Hassan Basma said the company has an order book of RM5.8 billion as at June 1 with a potential contract sum of RM2.5 billion due to extension options at customers’ discretion.

He said the RM5.8 billion excludes revenues from its letter of award (LoA) with Apache Corp for the Armada Prima FPSO vessel and its second LoA with Oil and Natural Gas Corp Ltd (ONGC) for the D-1 Field (off the west coast of India) FPSO. (年度净利有望大幅增加 , 如果巴西的竞标成功的话将带来可观利润)

Gamuda 等待发布 蓄势待发 @ 4 July 2011



























分析 :


尝试突破阻力线RM3.95  上升趋势
爆量上升 预计好消息加持效应
Bollinger 打开
MACD 上扬
RSI 超过70
Stoch >80 超买

自从6月末 ,EPF等国家资金都开始在抛售
Date/TimeStockHeadline
2011-07-01 15:44GAMUDAChanges in Sub. S-hldr's Int. (29B)
2011-06-30 12:37GAMUDAChanges in Sub. S-hldr's Int. (29B)
2011-06-30 12:37GAMUDAChanges in Sub. S-hldr's Int. (29B)
2011-06-29 12:19GAMUDAChanges in Sub. S-hldr's Int. (29B)
2011-06-28 18:08GAMUDAChanges in Sub. S-hldr's Int. (29B)
2011-06-28 14:35GAMUDAChanges in Sub. S-hldr's Int. (29B)
2011-06-27 15:33GAMUDAChanges in Sub. S-hldr's Int. (29B)
2011-06-24 17:34GAMUDAChanges in Sub. S-hldr's Int. (29B)
2011-06-24 14:21GAMUDAChanges in Sub. S-hldr's Int. (29B)

7月的第一个星期将会公布更多的PEMANDU 消息 预测MRT project - 80亿计划将会是其中之一会被宣布出来

股价从近期低点RM3.60, 到目前RM3.97 (11am 4th July 11) 已经有超过10%的profit, 要小心开始套利了解了 , 至少我相信消息公布后会有调整

突破了RM3.95 下一个阻力点在RM4.25 上一个新高

Friday, July 1, 2011

Sapcrest - 预料中的出色表现 @ 1 July 2011




 RM72 million 净利 (1QFY1/12) 普遍上符合各大分析行的24%全年表现预测. installation of pipelines and facilities (IPF) 业务做出了巨大贡献 盖过了表现相对逊色的 marine services division. 以目前价格来算,23x PE的估值不算低 如果要更进一步的提升营业表现 公司必须收购拥有现有工程的有利资产 或者 个子部门盈利增加 ,比如夺得更多Petrobas 工程.

技术指标 :
股价重站回10天均线
MACD回扬
STOCH 短期超卖
RSI 50 徘徊
技术买进 - TP 4.40 , 阻力线RM4.30 支撑线 RM4.10 买卖自负


Key financial data
FYE 31                 Jan FY11A       FY12F    FY13F    FY14F
Adj EPS (sen)           18.1               22.9       26.5          29.6
Adj P/E (x)               23.2               18.3       15.9          14.2
Net DPS (sen)          8.5                 9.2         10.6          14.8
Div yield (%)            2.0                 2.2          2.5             3.5
BVPS (RM)             0.86               1.00        1.15          1.30
P/B (x)                     4.9                 4.2          3.6             3.2