The market is going on a festival sweeping party, but hey, take a real look at the trading lot...
Tuesday, May 31, 2011
Afternoon Market Party 31/5/2011 LOLx
The market is going on a festival sweeping party, but hey, take a real look at the trading lot...
Genting SP - Time to Chip in? 超卖中 (31 May 2011 Price 2.00)
分析 :
均线 10天 MA 下插 20MA, 50MA 短期弱势
RSI 跌过 - 超卖中
MACD - 连续几个青柱 等蓝线回叉
Stochastic - 持续处于<20% 等回叉
WM%R - <80 超卖
总节 - 股价已经超卖， 等回弹信号出现 机会就会来临 目前可以少量买进建仓
by klsehunter83
**以上言论只代表本人学习交流所用 正在学习当中也许有错误 本人对读者行动不负任何形式**责任
Monday, May 30, 2011
AirAsia - Fastern your seat belt for landing? 飞机要降落？
分析 ：
AirAsia 的股价徘徊在 RM3 - RM3.15 之间已经1个星期， 期间有几次都底部反弹 乘低收货的人不少. 但是， 股价如果跌破20天均线的话 应该要开始小心了毕竟它是从RM2.50左右开始一路走高， 如果当时买进的人现在卖出 已经有最少20%-25% 回酬。 回档调整很正常。以目前油价稳定为条件($140/barrel 以下) 下一个季度业绩猜测会保持盈利, 同时也看好将来泰国+印尼的子公司上市， 为盈利带来贡献以及偿还债务于母公司.
各项指标显示趋势转弱的标志 有赚的人可以套利退场观望 等待下一个进场的机会
砂拉越油棕 (RM3.59 @ 27/5/11)
分析 :
从以上的图我们可以看到 砂拉越油棕（SOP，5126）继从去年 7 到 12 月份强劲上涨后便进入了巩固期。从以上日线 图看来，我们可以看到该股在一个“下降三角形”内巩固，突破其下跌趋线将结束该股的巩固期。
尽管如此，若砂拉越油棕跌破了“下降三角形”的 2.22 令吉支撑水平，我们不排 除它将加速回退的可能性。无论如何，突破或跌破有关三角形将有助于我们决定该股未来
的走势。至今，砂拉越油棕还是得以守住去年 7 到 12 月取得之涨幅的 50%；所以，我们认
为目前的巩固是健康的。从现有水平，即时阻力为 2.38 令吉，接下来是 2.51 令吉。初步支
撑为 2.22 令吉，接下来是 2.05 令吉
Friday, May 27, 2011
SUNCITY - Great Value Merger With RNAV RM7.30
分析：
ROE is 21% for FY2010. 让我们期待2011的表现。目前股价已经应为要和拼SUNWAY
所以长了不少， 但是， 作为长期投资的话 绝对可以尝试收一些。两者和拚以后将会
是马来西亚第5大的产业发展公司。 另外， 以RNAV per share = RM7.34 ， 将来得股价
可能受到重估
1QFY11 results were broadly inline amid an uninspiring core net profit of RM34.9m
due to (1) seasonally lower hospitality earnings, and (2) lumpy recognition of property
development earnings towards 2HFY11. FY11 sales target of RM1.5bn is on track with
1QFY11 new sales of RM354m while unbilled sales hit all-time high of RM1.2bn.
Reiterate BUY call as valuation is undemanding at FY11 P/E of 12.6x and P/B of 0.9x.
RNAV is RM7.34 which implies a 31% discount to current price.
Key financial data
FY09 FY10 FY11F FY12F
Adj EPS (sen) 45.3 34.5 40.0 48.4
Adj P/E (x) 16.7 14.6 12.6 10.4
Net DPS (sen) 9.8 23.3 9.0 11.3
Div yield (%) 1.9 4.6 1.8 2.2
BVPS (RM) 4.62 5.45 5.86 6.24
P/B (x) 1.1 0.9 0.9 0.8
Financial Ratios (MYR)
|
|
|
|
|
YTLP MACD与股价背离？ 会不会是反弹迹象？
Key financial data FYE 31 Dec FY10 FY11F FY12F FY13F Adj EPS (sen) 17.1 14.3 14.7 15.4 Adj P/E (x) 13.0 15.5 15.1 14.4 Net DPS (sen) 13.1 15.0 15.0 15.0 Div yield (%) 5.9 6.8 6.8 6.8 BVPS (RM) 1.00 1.12 1.16 1.22 P/B (x) 2.2 2.0 1.9 1.8 4g事业亏损旷大， 派息减少 --这个股票短期来讲 没设么吸引力 除非收长期 股价中期最近偏软 但是macd的方向有点背离 会不会是反弹上升的迹象？ 我们还需要更多的观察才能确定 Its 4G WIMAX business disappointed as 3QFY11 revenue of RM9.4m was rather flattish q-o-q, considering that Yes was launched in November 2010 and had only an half a quarter impact in 2QFY11 of RM4.7m. Assuming 3QFY11 had a larger subscriber base than 2QFY11, the flattish q-o-q revenue would be contributed by lower ARPU per subscriber. Start-up losses from Yes widened from RM19.8m in 2QFY11 to RM76.0m in 3QFY11, likely due to aggressive marketing expenses and subscriber acquisition cost. Cumulatively, Yes recorded losses of RM103.7m A third interim net dividend of 1.875 sen was declared which was again lower y-o-y for the second consequtive quarter compared to 3QFY10’s 3.75 sen. Cumulatively, 9MFY11 net DPS of 7.6 sen was lower than 9MFY10’s 11.3 sen. Maintain HOLD recommendation and SOP-based target price of RM2.36. |
YTL Corp may stage follow-through rebound on earnings report
| YTL Corp may stage follow-through rebound Published: 2011/05/27 Overall market sentiment on Bursa Malaysia improved considerably yesterday. Advancers outpaced decliners by 417 to 322. The FTSE Bursa Malaysia Kuala Lumpur Composite Index (FBM KLCI) rebounded from its intra-day low of 1,538.35 to its intra-day high of 1,543.63 yesterday. It closed at 1,540.94 points, giving a day-on-day gain of 7.37 points. YTL Corporation Bhd (YTL) staged a technical rebound yesterday. Its daily price trend rebounded to RM1.62, giving a day-on-day gain of 6 sen. Chartwise, YTL's 60-minute price trend fell from its high of RM1.75 on April 26, all the way up to its intra-day low of RM1.55 on Tuesday, posting a loss of 20 sen. Its 60-minute price trend staged a technical breakout of its intermediate-term downtrend (B1:B2) yesterday and stayed above it while, its 60-minute fast MACD (moving average convergence divergence) stayed above its 60-minute slow MACD yesterday. Both of its 60-minute fast and slow MACDs continued to stay above their respective neutral reference lines. YTL's 60-minute price trend is likely to stage a follow-through technical rebound, likely to re-challenge its overhead resistance zone. The subject expressed above is based on technical analysis and opinions of the writer. It is not a solicitation to buy or sell. |
各类投资术语 Investment Terminology
各类投资术语
EPS（每股盈利） － Earning Per Share
算法：公司除税后的可分配盈利除以已发行的股数
……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
PE/PER（本益比）－ Price to Earning Ratio
算法：股价除以每股盈利
……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
ROE（股东回报率） － Return On Equity
算法：净收入除以股东基金
……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
DY（股息率） － Dividend yield
算法：一年的每股派息额除以现有每股股价
……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
NTA（有形净资产） － Net Tangible Asset
算法：公司总资产，扣除公司无形资产（Intangible Asset）、债务和优先股的par value
……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
NTA Per Share（每股有形净资产） － Net Tangible Asset Per Share
算法：有形净资产除以已发行的股数
EPS（每股盈利） － Earning Per Share
算法：公司除税后的可分配盈利除以已发行的股数
……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
PE/PER（本益比）－ Price to Earning Ratio
算法：股价除以每股盈利
……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
ROE（股东回报率） － Return On Equity
算法：净收入除以股东基金
……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
DY（股息率） － Dividend yield
算法：一年的每股派息额除以现有每股股价
……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
NTA（有形净资产） － Net Tangible Asset
算法：公司总资产，扣除公司无形资产（Intangible Asset）、债务和优先股的par value
……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
NTA Per Share（每股有形净资产） － Net Tangible Asset Per Share
算法：有形净资产除以已发行的股数
Thursday, May 26, 2011
PCHEM / (PCHEM-CC) 值得留意
如果你对pchem 有兴趣的话，不妨看看他的CC, 目前0。25的价格不贵 有利润空间
最重要的是马来西亚油气业的信心够不够， 个人看法觉得前景不错 可以长期投资的蓝筹股
国油化学（PChem，5183）昨日突破短期下跌趋线后，看来将重拾涨势。从以上日线图看
来，我们可以清楚看到该股自上市以来便稳健上涨，并形成了一条中期上涨趋线。国油化
学最近的回退仅是自今年初股价强劲上涨以来的价格巩固。此外，有关回退并未跌破中期
上涨趋线。该股更是在昨日突破了短期下跌趋线。投资者可考虑在 7.00 令吉以上累积该
股，并等待中期上涨趋线延续。我们放眼 7.61 令吉为上涨目标，因为我们预料该股最终将
重新上探此水平。我们的止蚀点为即时关键支撑或 6.83 令吉以下。上涨阻力方面，放眼
7.41 令吉为即时阻力，接下来是 7.61 令吉。
PETALING JAYA: Petronas Chemicals Group Bhd will undoubtedly benefit from parent company Petroliam Nasional Bhd's (Petronas) plan to build a US$20bil integrated downstream oil and gas complex in Pengerang, Johor.
Analysts expect the company to be a key beneficiary, although it has yet to confirm its participation in the project.
CIMB Research said in a report yesterday that the plan would provide great growth potential for Petronas Chemicals, similar to what the latter had achieved at its largest facility at Kertih.
“Although the management has not clearly stated whether it is expanding in Johor, this plan is likely to be an expansion of the new naphtha-based petrochemical complex that the company talked about previously,” CIMB Research said, adding that Petronas Chemicals could invest US$1.5bil to US$2bil in the project.
JP Morgan said in a report this month that the development was positive for Petronas Chemicals as it would provide feedstock for the company to expand its Malaysian capacity further.
“We think this is important because for most Asian petrochemical producers, feedstock availability is the main bottleneck to expanding capacity significantly over the next three to five years.
Petronas twin towers is seen behind the company’s logo in Kuala Lumpur. — AFP
“The new ethylene capacity would be three times Petronas Chemicals' existing capacity and because it is based on naphtha, it will have the capability to produce profitable products like butadiene as well,” it said.
Petronas Chemicals has previously announced a three-year expansion plan that can add 30% capacity by 2015. The plan includes a downstream expansion to enhance margins, urea and ammonia plants with one million tonnes per annum capacity, and a new naphtha-based petrochemical complex.
The plans were likely to be finalised by next year and should be adequately funded with the company's net cash which stood at RM5bil now, said CIMB Research.
The research house said Petronas Chemicals would report strong fourth-quarter earnings for the financial year ended March 31 (due to be out tomorrow), with a growth of 36% quarter-on-quarter and 34% year-on-year.
The better earnings will be driven by higher margins on all of its products, improved petrochemical product prices (owing to higher oil prices) and a smaller increase in costs, especially ethane cost which is relatively fixed due to contracts.
It maintains an “outperform” call on the stock and said the share price was likely to be re-rated for its strong earnings in the fourth quarter and improved fundamentals, both short term (due to higher oil price and rising volume) and long term (its expansion plans and industry margin improvement post-2011 due to the industry upcycle).
“The stock remains attractive, given its superior growth profile and profitability. We continue to apply a calendar year 2012 EV/EBITDA (enterprise value/earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation) of 10 times to the stock, leading to an unchanged target price of RM10,” it said.
Meanwhile, ECM Libra Investment Research said in a report on Monday that Petronas Gas Bhd was an attractive buy with a target price of RM14.14. It implies a 19.4 times price-to-earnings ratio due to potential earnings upside from its liquefied natural gas (LNG) re-gas facility to be ready mid next year in Malacca.
“New earnings would be from transportation and re-gasification service agreement or the agreement alone,” it said.
ECM Libra said with the plant adding some 20% to Petronas Gas' current transportation volumes, net profit could grow by 10% from transportation alone. As for re-gasification charges, revenue from that segment alone would amount to RM330mil based on an estimated price of RM2 per million British thermal units.
OSK Research also said in a report recently that Petronas Gas could be an indirect beneficiary of gas subsidy cuts, given that the move would make it more palatable for Petronas to import LNG via the former's terminal for transmission around Peninsular Malaysia.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)