Tuesday, May 31, 2011

Afternoon Market Party 31/5/2011 LOLx


     The market is going on a festival sweeping party, but hey, take a real look at the trading lot...

Genting SP - Time to Chip in? 超卖中 (31 May 2011 Price 2.00)


分析 :
均线 10天 MA 下插 20MA, 50MA 短期弱势 
RSI 跌过 - 超卖中 
MACD - 连续几个青柱 等蓝线回叉
Stochastic - 持续处于<20% 等回叉
WM%R - <80 超卖
总节 - 股价已经超卖, 等回弹信号出现 机会就会来临 目前可以少量买进建仓
by klsehunter83


**以上言论只代表本人学习交流所用 正在学习当中也许有错误  本人对读者行动不负任何形式**责任 

Monday, May 30, 2011

AirAsia - Fastern your seat belt for landing? 飞机要降落?


分析 :

AirAsia 的股价徘徊在 RM3 - RM3.15 之间已经1个星期, 期间有几次都底部反弹 乘低收货的人不少. 但是, 股价如果跌破20天均线的话  应该要开始小心了毕竟它是从RM2.50左右开始一路走高, 如果当时买进的人现在卖出 已经有最少20%-25% 回酬。 回档调整很正常。以目前油价稳定为条件($140/barrel 以下) 下一个季度业绩猜测会保持盈利, 同时也看好将来泰国+印尼的子公司上市, 为盈利带来贡献以及偿还债务于母公司.
各项指标显示趋势转弱的标志 有赚的人可以套利退场观望 等待下一个进场的机会

砂拉越油棕 (RM3.59 @ 27/5/11)


分析 :
从以上的图我们可以看到 砂拉越油棕(SOP,5126)继从去年 7 到 12 月份强劲上涨后便进入了巩固期。从以上日线 图看来,我们可以看到该股在一个“下降三角形”内巩固,突破其下跌趋线将结束该股的巩固期。

尽管如此,若砂拉越油棕跌破了“下降三角形”的 2.22 令吉支撑水平,我们不排 除它将加速回退的可能性。无论如何,突破或跌破有关三角形将有助于我们决定该股未来
的走势。至今,砂拉越油棕还是得以守住去年 7 到 12 月取得之涨幅的 50%;所以,我们认
为目前的巩固是健康的。从现有水平,即时阻力为 2.38 令吉,接下来是 2.51 令吉。初步支
撑为 2.22 令吉,接下来是 2.05 令吉
Graph Source : OSK

Friday, May 27, 2011

SUNCITY - Great Value Merger With RNAV RM7.30


分析:

ROE is 21% for FY2010. 让我们期待2011的表现。目前股价已经应为要和拼SUNWAY 
所以长了不少, 但是, 作为长期投资的话 绝对可以尝试收一些。两者和拚以后将会
是马来西亚第5大的产业发展公司。 另外, 以RNAV per share = RM7.34 , 将来得股价
可能受到重估



1QFY11 results were broadly inline amid an uninspiring core net profit of RM34.9m 

due to (1) seasonally lower hospitality earnings, and (2) lumpy recognition of property 

development earnings towards 2HFY11. FY11 sales target of RM1.5bn is on track with 

1QFY11 new sales of RM354m while unbilled sales hit all-time high of RM1.2bn. 

Reiterate BUY call as valuation is undemanding at FY11 P/E of 12.6x and P/B of 0.9x. 

RNAV is RM7.34 which implies a 31% discount to current price. 


Key financial data 
                                              FY09  FY10   FY11F    FY12F
Adj EPS (sen)                         45.3    34.5       40.0        48.4
Adj P/E (x)                             16.7    14.6        12.6        10.4
Net DPS (sen)                         9.8       23.3        9.0        11.3
Div yield (%)                           1.9        4.6        1.8          2.2
BVPS (RM)                            4.62     5.45       5.86       6.24
P/B (x)                                    1.1        0.9        0.9          0.8

Financial Ratios (MYR)

Period
EPS
NAV
Price Earnings Ratio (PER)
Net Earnings Margin
Revenue Growth
Net Earnings Growth
Return On Asset (ROA)
Return On Equity (ROE)
Current Ratio
Full Year
Dec 2010
$1.14863
$5.4468
4.40
48.808 %
n.a.
n.a.
11.841 %
21.088 %
1.621
Full Year
Jun 2009
$0.28798
$3.8232
17.54
12.382 %
-17.777 %
n.a.
2.610 %
7.532 %
1.212
Full Year
Jun 2008
$0.56786
$3.5860
8.89
20.076 %
15.306 %
83.740 %
5.116 %
15.835 %
3.507
Full Year
Jun 2007
$0.30906
$3.0353
16.34
12.598 %
-27.509 %
n.a.
3.447 %
10.182 %
1.510

YTLP MACD与股价背离? 会不会是反弹迹象?





Key financial data 
FYE 31 Dec FY10 FY11F FY12F FY13F
Adj EPS (sen) 17.1  14.3  14.7  15.4 
Adj P/E (x) 13.0  15.5  15.1  14.4 
Net DPS (sen) 13.1  15.0  15.0  15.0 
Div yield (%) 5.9 6.8 6.8 6.8
BVPS (RM) 1.00  1.12  1.16  1.22 
P/B (x) 2.2  2.0  1.9  1.8


4g事业亏损旷大, 派息减少 --这个股票短期来讲 没设么吸引力 除非收长期
股价中期最近偏软 但是macd的方向有点背离 会不会是反弹上升的迹象? 我们还需要更多的观察才能确定


Its 4G WIMAX business disappointed as 3QFY11 revenue of RM9.4m was rather 
flattish q-o-q, considering that Yes was launched in November 2010 and had only an 
half a quarter impact in 2QFY11 of RM4.7m. Assuming 3QFY11 had a larger 
subscriber base than 2QFY11, the flattish q-o-q revenue would be contributed by 
lower ARPU per subscriber. 
Start-up losses from Yes widened from RM19.8m in 2QFY11 to RM76.0m in 3QFY11, 
likely due to aggressive marketing expenses and subscriber acquisition cost. 
Cumulatively, Yes recorded losses of RM103.7m

A third interim net dividend of 1.875 sen was declared which was again lower y-o-y 
for the second consequtive quarter compared to 3QFY10’s 3.75 sen. Cumulatively, 
9MFY11 net DPS of 7.6 sen was lower than 9MFY10’s 11.3 sen.  

Maintain HOLD recommendation and SOP-based target price of RM2.36.

YTL Corp may stage follow-through rebound on earnings report


YTL Corp may stage follow-through rebound
Published: 2011/05/27

Overall market sentiment on Bursa Malaysia improved considerably yesterday.
Advancers outpaced decliners by 417 to 322.

The FTSE Bursa Malaysia Kuala Lumpur Composite Index (FBM KLCI) rebounded
from its intra-day low of 1,538.35 to its intra-day high of 1,543.63 yesterday.
It closed at 1,540.94 points, giving a day-on-day gain of 7.37 points.

YTL Corporation Bhd (YTL) staged a technical rebound yesterday. Its daily price
trend rebounded to RM1.62, giving a day-on-day gain of 6 sen.

Chartwise, YTL's 60-minute price trend fell from its high of RM1.75 on April 26, all
the way up to its intra-day low of RM1.55 on Tuesday, posting a loss of 20 sen.


Its 60-minute price trend staged a technical breakout of its intermediate-term
downtrend (B1:B2) yesterday and stayed above it while, its 60-minute fast MACD
(moving average convergence divergence) stayed above its 60-minute slow MACD yesterday.

Both of its 60-minute fast and slow MACDs continued to stay above their respective
 neutral reference lines.

YTL's 60-minute price trend is likely to stage a follow-through technical rebound,
likely to re-challenge its overhead resistance zone.

The subject expressed above is based on technical analysis and opinions of the
writer. It is not a solicitation to buy or sell.

买股票前要问自己10个问题

买股票前要问自己10个问题
我在抄底的时候从来不会参考任何技术图形,更不会听信任何消息。
我通常只问自己10个非常简单的问题:
     1.我是否知道这家公司是做什么的?它是否只有一个主业?


     2.10年以后这家公司是否还会在?(或者说它还在的可能性是否足够高?)



     3.它所处的行业是否是一个正在快速增长、并且随着居住的国家(如马来西亚)
        可支配收入的提升在未来会超比例获益的行业?


     4.这家公司是否会被内需求而拉动?是否有从大城市进军其他的小城市的潜力?
     (KL的产品会不会延伸到jb, 怡保等。)


      5.作为消费者,我及我周围的人是否愿意使用它的产品或者服务?


      6.它的行业地位是否很容易被取代?
         它相对于它的追随者而言是否有一定的门槛(barrier)?


      7.它目前的profit rate、cash flow and other statement等估值是否相对合理?


       8.它的平均交易量是否足够大?流动性是否足够好?


       9.它的director在接受媒体采访时流露出来的思想和理念我自己是否认可?


       10.这家公司是否存在大量关联交易?




如果这10个问题的答案都让我觉得比较踏实,那么我就会毫不犹豫地买入。
也许股价明天还会继续下探,也许市场明年还会有更好的买入时机,
但是没关系,我知道我永远不可能抄到最低,正如我永远不可能抓到最高。
我只要中间黄金时段,剩下的与我无关。 

什么是凭单?


什么是凭单?

凭单是买方和卖方之间的期权合约。凭单(例如:认购凭单)赋予投资者权利 (但非义务) 于指定日期(到期日)以指定价钱(行使价)买入相关资产(例如:股票)。这项权利将在到期日完全无效。 

你所支付的凭单价格附带着溢价;既是相对于直接买入相关资产;通过行使凭单来间接买入相关资产的额外成本(百分率)。凭单拥有两种行使方式:美式和欧式。 

当你行使凭单权利,你可向发行商购买相关资产;而发行商有义务以行使价交付相关资产。 

凭单与买卖股票相似,可在大马交易所自由交易。凭单价值来自于它的相关资产,如蓝筹股,一籃子股票或指数。 

凭单可分为两种 :
a.公司凭单
为了筹集资金,公司可透过本身的股票发售凭单。凭单的单位价值取决于该公司的股票价值。
b.结构凭单
一般由投资银行所发行。结构凭单让投资者在特定的价格和时间购买特定数额的股票,指数或其它类型的资产。发行人的目的不在于筹集资金,而是为你的投资组合提供多一种的投资工具。 

公司凭单和结构凭单的主要区别 :

公司凭单结构凭单
发行人自家公司第三方发行人,通常是有信誉的投资银行
相关资产自家公司的股票任何符合法律 / 法规的相关资产
行使方式美式一般美式或欧式
稀释发行新股份,通常会造成股票稀释发行新股份,也不会造成股票稀释
期限一般3至5年一般6个月至2年
流通性没有做市商指定的做市商,将确保流动性
结算方式实物交收股份一般先金结算
什么是认购凭单?
认购凭单赋予投资者权利 (但非义务) 在设定的到期日以指定的价格(行使价)买入特定数额的相关资产(例如:股票) 

认购凭单的价值是直接受到相关资产的价格变动所影响。如果投资者看涨相关资产,那么购买凭单将让投资者受惠于相关资产的升势。 

图1显示认购凭单(被行使或到期时)的盈亏状况. 就像相关资产股票一样,认购凭单有无限的上升空间,但损失只限于所缴付的总投资额。当相关资产价格高于行使价,该认购凭单价格也将开始上升;而你可通过交易所出售认购凭单赚取利润。 

(请使用天龍计算机计算凭单理论性参考价格)。 

天龍智慧5让你了解哪些做法会令你获得更高的利润,a)通过交易所出售凭单 b)行使凭单 或 c)保留凭单至到期日。 

图1: 认购凭单的盈亏状况
美式和欧式凭单

凭单基本拥有两种行使方式,即美式和欧式。 

美式凭单可在期限内和到期日随时行使其权力,而欧式凭单却只能在到期日行使其权力。因此在相同的条件下欧式凭单会比较便宜。换言之,由于美式凭单提供投资者较多的行使权,因此也比较昂贵。 

行使价

这是投资者在到期日用来购买相关资产的价格。发行人在发售凭单时就已经定下相关资产的行使价* 行使价也是一个用来衡量凭单价值状况的基准,即价内,在价或价外。 

*商业活动所导致的价格调整除外。 


价值状况

认购凭单

价内 - 当相关资产价格高于凭单行使价
价外 - 当相关资产价格低于凭单行使价
在价 - 当相关资产价格相等于凭单行使价 

如图2所示,当ABC公司的股票价格是RM2.50,高于凭单行使价RM2.11; 认购凭单就处于价内(A方案)。 

在B方案中,当ABC公司股票价格下降到RM2.00,低于凭单行使价RM2.11;此时认购凭单就处于价外。 

最后在C方案中,当ABC公司股票价格相等于凭单行使价; 认购凭单处于在价。 

凭单打和价格是RM2.48([RM0.075 x 5] + RM2.11])。你必须在打和价格以上行使权力,这样才能获利。然而,你应该评估结算凭单的各种方式,看看那类方式能让你获得最高的利润。 
例如
相关资产
A方案: 价内-相关资产闭市价格 (A)
B方案: 价外-相关资产闭市价格 (B)
C方案: 在价-相关资产闭市价格 (C)
行使价
转换比率
凭单价格
期限
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
ABC公司
RM2.50
RM2.00
RM2.11
RM2.11
5 凭单 : 1 股票
RM0.075
6 个月
如图2: ABC认购凭单的盈亏状况

各类投资术语 Investment Terminology

各类投资术语

EPS(每股盈利) - Earning Per Share
算法:公司除税后的可分配盈利除以已发行的股数




……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………

PE/PER(本益比)- Price to Earning Ratio
算法:股价除以每股盈利




……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………

ROE(股东回报率) - Return On Equity
算法:净收入除以股东基金




……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………

DY(股息率) - Dividend yield
算法:一年的每股派息额除以现有每股股价




……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………

NTA(有形净资产) - Net Tangible Asset
算法:公司总资产,扣除公司无形资产(Intangible Asset)、债务和优先股的par value




……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………

NTA Per Share(每股有形净资产) - Net Tangible Asset Per Share
算法:有形净资产除以已发行的股数

Thursday, May 26, 2011

PCHEM / (PCHEM-CC) 值得留意



如果你对pchem 有兴趣的话,不妨看看他的CC, 目前0。25的价格不贵 有利润空间
最重要的是马来西亚油气业的信心够不够, 个人看法觉得前景不错 可以长期投资的蓝筹股





国油化学(PChem,5183)昨日突破短期下跌趋线后,看来将重拾涨势。从以上日线图看
来,我们可以清楚看到该股自上市以来便稳健上涨,并形成了一条中期上涨趋线。国油化
学最近的回退仅是自今年初股价强劲上涨以来的价格巩固。此外,有关回退并未跌破中期
上涨趋线。该股更是在昨日突破了短期下跌趋线。投资者可考虑在 7.00 令吉以上累积该
股,并等待中期上涨趋线延续。我们放眼 7.61 令吉为上涨目标,因为我们预料该股最终将
重新上探此水平。我们的止蚀点为即时关键支撑或 6.83 令吉以下。上涨阻力方面,放眼
7.41 令吉为即时阻力,接下来是 7.61 令吉。


PETALING JAYA: Petronas Chemicals Group Bhd will undoubtedly benefit from parent company Petroliam Nasional Bhd's (Petronas) plan to build a US$20bil integrated downstream oil and gas complex in Pengerang, Johor.

Analysts expect the company to be a key beneficiary, although it has yet to confirm its participation in the project.

CIMB Research said in a report yesterday that the plan would provide great growth potential for Petronas Chemicals, similar to what the latter had achieved at its largest facility at Kertih.

“Although the management has not clearly stated whether it is expanding in Johor, this plan is likely to be an expansion of the new naphtha-based petrochemical complex that the company talked about previously,” CIMB Research said, adding that Petronas Chemicals could invest US$1.5bil to US$2bil in the project.

JP Morgan said in a report this month that the development was positive for Petronas Chemicals as it would provide feedstock for the company to expand its Malaysian capacity further.

“We think this is important because for most Asian petrochemical producers, feedstock availability is the main bottleneck to expanding capacity significantly over the next three to five years.


Petronas twin towers is seen behind the company’s logo in Kuala Lumpur. — AFP
“The new ethylene capacity would be three times Petronas Chemicals' existing capacity and because it is based on naphtha, it will have the capability to produce profitable products like butadiene as well,” it said.

Petronas Chemicals has previously announced a three-year expansion plan that can add 30% capacity by 2015. The plan includes a downstream expansion to enhance margins, urea and ammonia plants with one million tonnes per annum capacity, and a new naphtha-based petrochemical complex.

The plans were likely to be finalised by next year and should be adequately funded with the company's net cash which stood at RM5bil now, said CIMB Research.

The research house said Petronas Chemicals would report strong fourth-quarter earnings for the financial year ended March 31 (due to be out tomorrow), with a growth of 36% quarter-on-quarter and 34% year-on-year.

The better earnings will be driven by higher margins on all of its products, improved petrochemical product prices (owing to higher oil prices) and a smaller increase in costs, especially ethane cost which is relatively fixed due to contracts.

It maintains an “outperform” call on the stock and said the share price was likely to be re-rated for its strong earnings in the fourth quarter and improved fundamentals, both short term (due to higher oil price and rising volume) and long term (its expansion plans and industry margin improvement post-2011 due to the industry upcycle).

“The stock remains attractive, given its superior growth profile and profitability. We continue to apply a calendar year 2012 EV/EBITDA (enterprise value/earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation) of 10 times to the stock, leading to an unchanged target price of RM10,” it said.

Meanwhile, ECM Libra Investment Research said in a report on Monday that Petronas Gas Bhd was an attractive buy with a target price of RM14.14. It implies a 19.4 times price-to-earnings ratio due to potential earnings upside from its liquefied natural gas (LNG) re-gas facility to be ready mid next year in Malacca.

“New earnings would be from transportation and re-gasification service agreement or the agreement alone,” it said.

ECM Libra said with the plant adding some 20% to Petronas Gas' current transportation volumes, net profit could grow by 10% from transportation alone. As for re-gasification charges, revenue from that segment alone would amount to RM330mil based on an estimated price of RM2 per million British thermal units.

OSK Research also said in a report recently that Petronas Gas could be an indirect beneficiary of gas subsidy cuts, given that the move would make it more palatable for Petronas to import LNG via the former's terminal for transmission around Peninsular Malaysia.