Sunway Suncity 和拼消息更新 & 2011 下半年行情预测 @ 13 June 2011

2011 下半年行情预测 @ 13 June 2011

目前来说汇市股票债卷对处于一个分水岭， 由于上半年的天灾人祸， 今年的行情并不算太好。 美国的经济情况糟糕 已经到一个极限的程度 ， QE 2 将在6月尾结束， 而FEDS 背负了太多的政治压力 不得不放缓印钞票的举动 ， 将会对全球，东南亚以及我国的局势带来毁灭性的打击。


但是，个人预测， 这只是短期而言， 因为美国不会停止救市，要不然下一届的president 又要换人了， 所以说 OBAMA叔叔一定会采取行动 不惜代价都要pump 起这个market, 至少在他下位以前。 可以预见的是7-8月将会有一个大调整， 满舱位的朋友要小心了。 马来西亚的政府如果真的要明年大选的话，预计会加大力度出场干预， 更多的工程，导致马股的未来展望不算太坏，分析师们近来的看好 证实了这点。 也许这也是一个机会， 一个时机 让我们收集一些的好蓝筹股也不一定。 



Standard Charted Market Review :
Economic numbers have been coming in below expectations 
consistently lately. Some now fear that the US may 
potentially double-dip, and China may face stagflation. This 
growing fear of a global slowdown, coupled with the 
lingering uncertainties over Greece and the European debt 
crisis, is fostering broad risk aversion. 
Bernanke’s downbeat assessment of the US economy 
reinforces this state of edginess. The scheduled ending of 
QE2 at the end of this month could only add to the summer 
blues. 


EQUITIES
 The present “soft patch” in the global economic 
recovery continues to support our neutral stance on 
equities  


COMMODITIES 
 Cautious on base metals and silver 
 Broadly neutral on oil  1
 Buy gold on pull backs to USD1480 - 1500 


BONDS 
 We remain underweight bonds on the basis that the 
global economy is facing a temporary  “soft patch” 
before picking up in H2-11. 
*Percentage change from June 3 to June 9 
Source: Bloomberg, Standard Chartered Research 


FX 
 Risk aversion triggers retracement on EUR and AUD. 
 Overall, investors should overweight AXJ against the 
USD and JPY, focusing on currencies with proactive 
monetary and exchange rate policies, such as the CNY, 
TWD, KRW, SGD and IDR. 

Sunway Suncity 和拼消息更新

SUNWAY (FV RM3.27– TRADING BUY)

Company Update: Further Upside via Merged Entity

Though the implied merger price of RM2.60 has created a cap on Sunway’s stock price,

we argue that Sunway is worth more than that due to the potential upside from Newco.

The Newco upon listing, would trade at a P/BV of 1.39x compared to its peers at 2.62x.

Based on a 30% discount to its peers, Newco would be worth RM3.70, implying a

RM3.27 FV for Sunway given the share swap ratio. We advise shareholders to vote in

favour of the proposed merger this Wednesday. With a 28% upside to our FV, we

upgrade Sunway to TRADING BUY. (OSK188来源)

股东大会将在15号6月 召开， 届时将会投票决定，和拼的结果， 股票回购以及相关事宜. 预期不会有太大的偏差顺利通过。

以目前的价格 Suncity RM5.05 , Suncity-WA RM1.22 来计算 估计可以得到12.5% Profit. 一切费用除外。如果新股上市达到RM3.00-3.20的合理价位， 收获将会更丰富。